How to make sense of Netanyahu’s shenanigans

A report by the well-connected Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth this week confirmed earlier reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has derailed ceasefire deals by introducing unreasonable last-minute demands, designed to be rejected by Hamas so he can continue the war. Many people, including in Israel, have always suspected Netanyahu of deliberately derailing the talks and the document cited by the Israeli paper has confirmed that suspicion. Several news outlets have reported on Netanyahu’s moving of the goal posts, but this is the first time an Israeli document has been obtained to confirm that.

According to the paper, among the new demands was that Israeli forces continue to occupy the Egypt-Gaza border area, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, and maintain a 1.4-km perimeter in Gaza along the Israeli border, while the original May 27 proposal offered an eventual full withdrawal from Gaza.

Netanyahu’s policies have long puzzled and angered his friends and adversaries alike. He has crossed every red line possible, committed countless war crimes and crimes against humanity, isolating Israel and putting at risk long-time partnerships with the US and Europe. Many Israelis, including the families of those held by Hamas, have been livid at the prime minister’s sacrificing of their sons and daughters for the pursuit of his misguided policies of purposefully prolonging the war and torpedoing deals for his political benefit.

Israeli politicians have accused him of endangering the country’s future, even its very existence

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

CNN cited an Israeli source familiar with the talks as saying that Netanyahu’s demands were to blame for the recent deaths of six hostages, three of whose names were included for release on the lists exchanged in the ongoing talks. “Two months ago, when he (Netanyahu) put the obstacles, he said no to the deal. The hostages died because he insisted,” the source told CNN. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said at the weekend that the finding of the bodies was “a direct result of Netanyahu’s thwarting of the deals.”

This week, in response to these widespread accusations, Netanyahu was back in his element, with a “chest-thumping, bombastic speech,” according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. He again rejected calls for leaving the Philadelphi Corridor, essentially ending hopes of a deal.

Some have questioned Bibi’s cognitive capabilities, saying that he is acting irrationally after the shock of the Oct. 7 attack knocked him off balance. Israeli politicians have accused him of endangering the country’s future, even its very existence. But while there have been widespread protests in Israel and calls for his resignation over the past two years, it appears that he still enjoys enough support to stay in power.

Some analysts have suggested that Netanyahu has a Masada complex, meaning that he prefers mass suicide over compromise, or a Samson complex, meaning he is willing to destroy himself along with his adversaries.

However, those who are familiar with Netanyahu’s political career see some consistency in his actions from the beginning. When he was Israel’s UN representative between 1984 and 1988, for example, he charted a new maximalist, uncompromising approach. Previously, Israeli diplomats sought to gloss over the country’s excesses and portray Israel as seeking peace and reconciliation, even when facts on the ground indicated otherwise. I was working at the UN at the time and watched how he purposely riled UN officials and his adversaries and alienated his friends.

This tendency continued after he left his UN post and returned to Israel. Driven by blind political ambitions, he vociferously opposed peace with the Palestinians, including the Oslo Accords, which included unprecedented concessions by the Palestinian leadership. He incessantly agitated against then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was finally assassinated by an extremist inspired by Netanyahu’s bellicose rhetoric. Rabin’s family has never forgiven Netanyahu for his incitement.

He is defying the country’s security and military establishment and trying to do away with judicial authority

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

Political scientists would likely view Netanyahu’s approach as “offensive realism,” which means that the motive for a state and its leaders is maximizing power. The German-American scholar Hans Morgenthau argued that an “animus dominandi” (desire for power) motivates humans and states alike. In applying this theory to international relations, American political scientist Kenneth Waltz believed that the international system provides a greater opportunity to maximize power than national politics because there is no ultimate authority in international politics comparable to a domestic government that can adjudicate disputes.

John Mearsheimer, one of the most prominent living political scientists, has long studied Israel’s politics and written extensively on its considerable influence in the US. While he has been critical of Israel and Netanyahu’s policies in Gaza and the West Bank, his theories in fact provide logical explanations for Netanyahu’s pursuit of what appear to be illogical ends. Mearsheimer is credited with coining and developing the theory of offensive realism, according to which some states and leaders seek to exploit the international system because it lacks central authority to apply the rules of international law, leaving it to great powers to persuade, pressure and coerce smaller states. This fact removes constraints on a leader’s desire to maximize power.

To apply these theories to Netanyahu’s behavior, we see that he is maximizing his power within Israel. He has now served longer than any other prime minister, including the country’s founding father David Ben-Gurion. He has a loyal following, some of whom call him the “king” of Israel, securing him enough support to stay in power. He is defying the country’s security and military establishment and trying to do away with judicial authority and independence.

In the current international system, which is characterized by geopolitical polarization, it is easier for a power-hungry political leader to survive and maximize his benefits. The US and other allies of Israel have continued to support Netanyahu despite their criticism of his policies in Gaza. They provide him with the arms he is using to subjugate Gaza and the West Bank in defiance of international law. They also shield him from UN sanctions. Netanyahu is able to pursue his policies only because of that support.

The US is able to disabuse Netanyahu of his notion of entitlement to unlimited support by conditioning that support to implementing America’s own policies and preferences. It can start by insisting that Netanyahu accepts President Joe Biden’s Gaza plan, which he announced on May 31 and was adopted by UN Security Council Resolution 2735. Free of electoral pressures, the White House could pursue this approach in the remaining months of the Biden administration.

• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent the GCC. X: @abuhamad1